Extra! Extra! Read all about it!
21 February 2019 | 12:42 pm

Last weekend I saw the documentary Joseph Pulitzer: Voice of the People. Pulitzer, as you probably know from the prize named after him, was a major newspaper publisher in the late 19th and early 20th century. He ran two papers, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and The New York World. The World at one point took on massive proportions, including sheet music of the latest tunes and dress patterns of new fashion that one could make at home. The World was the Internet of the turn of the 20th century.

The movie mentioned the many editions of the paper during the day, including the extra edition. An extra edition came out because of some major breaking news story. Back then newspapers would drum up minor stories to sell extra editions but they tended to disappear over time.

Which brings me to Monday, August 19, 1991. Hard-line members of the communist party of the USSR attempted a coup to take over the government from Mikhail Gorbachev. To us in the US, this seemed like the cold war which appeared to be coming to an end might rekindle. At the time I lived in Chicago and on that Monday the Chicago Tribune ran an extra afternoon edition talking about the coup. The return to the cold war didn't happen. Within a couple of days the coup failed and if anything hastened the dissolution of the Soviet Republic.

That was probably the last of the extra editions. By the time of the next major historical event, ten years and twenty-three days later, we had the Internet and cell phones and one no longer needed a newspaper to tell you the world has changed.

Using `who will be the dem VP choice' article in class
19 February 2019 | 1:27 pm

I recently read an absurd article that speculated on who the Democratic VICE prez nominees will be. Yes, you read that right, VICE Prez. Gee, wouldn't knowing who the Prez nominees was first help. But leave it to Nate Silver and company to have a fascinating yet... premature article on this. Here is the link: article on who will be Dem VP nominee.  Its hard enough to pick the VP when the Prez is known! I did a blog on how badly intrade would do on predicting VP, here. I didn't predict that intrade would go out of business (`intrade' was short hand for `betting markets' just like `Uber' is shorthand for `hailing a car with your phone'- I wonder if the term `Uber' will still be used if they go out of business?)

After reading I thought

Wow- there are so many If-Then clauses in this that I could make half a lecture about it for my Discrete Math class where we are talking about Prop. Logic.

I emailed the students to read it, and we had a lively discussion. I made sure it was a non-partisan discussion. Realize that a statement like:

If the Prez is a female then the VP will likely be a male because it is thought, righly or wrongly, that all-female ticket can't win

is not partisan or sexist, it is stating an opinion about how voters would go. It may be incorrect, but its not offensive.

Here is what the class thought the article was saying (and I think they are right) expressed in Logic.

Note one other thing-- the Prez nominees  might not be the choice of the party (Trump wasn't the choice of the Rep party in 2016, though not clear who was, see here) but the VP really will be since (I think) the party has more control over that.

If the Prez Nominees is female then the Vice Prez nominee will be male. (I agree)

If the Prez Nominees is white mail then the Vice Prez nominee will be either female or non-white but not both. (Great question to express that as symbols. Not sure what I think- the thought is that two white males will be odd since so many of the candidates are female or non-white. Having said that, in recent years the VP has NOT been someone else who ran:  Clinton-Keane, Keane had not been a candidate, Trump-Pence, Pence had not been a candidate, Romney-Ryan, Ryan had not been a candidate, Obama-Biden, Biden had been a candidate briefly in 2008, but this was not one of these `lets unite the party by picking by OPPONENT to be VP', McCain-Palin, Palin had not been a candidate. Kerry-Edwards. YES- Edwards had been a serious candidate in 2004, though some think he was running for VP all along since he never said an unkind word about his opponents)

Prez from one of the coasts IFF VP from the center. (I won't go over the list again, but this has been less of a thing since Clinton-Gore were both from flyover states.)

Ideology- If Prez is establishment then VP is leftists. (Not sure these terms are so well defined to say this, and their are other ideologies as well, not sure how they fit in.)

If Prez lacks Fed Experience then VP should have Fed Exp. (Quite common: Obama-Biden, Romney-Ryan, Clinton-Gore, Bush-Cheney)

If Prez has fed experience than nothing can be deduced about VP Fed Exp.

If Prez lacks gravitas then VP should have gravitas (tricky! Don't want the VP to outshine the Prez!)

Absolute statement: VP should not outshine prez. A Kangaroo ticket is when the people prefer the VP to the Prez (Dukakis-Bentsen had this problem. Kerry-Edwards might have).

If Prez is boring then VP should be exciting. But again tricky! (I think that was why McCain picked Palin. And she was exciting, but not really in a good way. Couldn't he have picked someone exciting, and perhaps female who was, you know, Qualified?)

VP's like doctors: do no harm.

VP from Swing state helpful but not necc.

Bad to have a VP who is a senator from a state where the Governor is republican and picks the replacement senator.

VP should be someone who the country can picture being president without laughing. I am not talking ideology I am talking about seriousness and experience. Palin was the only one in recent memory who even voters of her party worried that she was not up to being president. One pundit defending the choice talked about how McCain was healthy and hence Palin wouldn't become prez so don't worry about it. NOT reassuring! Quayle was also not seen as serious, though not as much as Palin.

If Prez is old then VP mattes more(?)

Many of the above depend on who the Prez is. And that is one of the points: one can write down a long prop formula with many IF-THEN's to determine who properties the VP will have, and then

1) When the Prez is picked many of the variables are set and hence the formula becomes much easeier and

2) Could STILL be wrong!

MY prediction: my last two predictions have been wrong so I am reluctant go predict anything. But I will tell you my WRONG predictions and then my current one

I predicted Paul Ryan would be the Prez Nominee in 2016. He didn't even run.

I predicted that Al Franken would be the Prez Nominess in 2020- he understands TV and was an entertainer, so he could match Trump. Whoops.

So with that sterling record I predict: Prez: Cory Booker, VP: Beto

I am NOT a pundit- so what I predict is not what I hope happens.  What do I hope? In the interest of full disclosure (gee, shouldn't that have come at the beginning) I admit that I want to see Trump lose but I have no idea what makes someone `electable' nowadays.



The iPhonification of Everything
14 February 2019 | 12:52 pm

So you've got an iPhone XS in Space Grey. Congrats, so do 20 million other people. Maybe you have different cases but otherwise the hardware in all these phones are virtually identical. Yet you can tell with a glance that this is your phone. You can personalize apps and other elements of the home screen. It's your calendar and email and music.

What? You've dropped your phone over Niagara falls. Luckily you've backed up your data. So you go back to Apple and buy another Space Grey iPhone XS and restore your data. Physically it's a completely different phone but for all practical purposes it's though you still had the original phone. Your phone is not defined by the device but the data that resides on it.

It's not just phones. I can log into Google on anyone's Chrome browser and it will feel like my machine.

Now we've all heard about a future world where nobody owns cars and we get driven around in self-driving Ubers, Lyfts and Waymos. One argument against this world is that people feel connected to their cars and unwilling to commute in some generic vehicle. But one can also imagine the car knows who you are, knows how you like your music, your lighting, how you adjust your seats even how your car drives. It becomes your car. Maybe even has electronic bumper stickers that change to support your political party.

You can imagine the same for hotel rooms, your office, maybe even your apartment. It won't replicate your dog (or will it?) but as we get define more by our data than our things, do our things matter at all?


More News from this Feed See Full Web Site